Macroeconomic Variables In China

Macroeconomic Variables In China From the beginning of the first public company on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 1990,the stock market has experienced a rapidly increase during these twenty years in china.Up to the year of 2008, there were approximately 1650 public companies on either Shanghai Stock Exchange or Shengzheng Stock Exchange with the total market capitalization of 121366(100 million yuan).The relationship between macroeconomic variables and market prices has been widely recognised by economists,they have made a lot of researches in this field,though the way to identify their bearings are vary from person to person.Some of them use only one of macroeconomic variables like Comoncioli(1995)who focuses on the relationship between stock market index and Gross Domestic Product (GDP),Pearce and Roley(1983) study on the PPI(producer price index),and Lee (1992)emphasizes on the Interest Rate.Some prefer to combine different kinds of macroeconomic variables for analysize.Abdullah and Hayworth(1993)use seven macro economic variables (namely,money spply,inflation ,short and long-term interest rates,budget,trade and the growth of industry)to study their relationship between stock market prices.Tursoy,Gunsel and Rjoub(2008) adopt more than ten macroeconomic variables for research.In this mini essay, the first part is the introduction of some relative backdrop,including the situation of stock market in china and the privious researches of other learners.Next to this,it begins to analyse the relationship between each macroeconomic variables and stock market prices according to the detailed statistics in china.The last part is to draw some conclusions. Since the differennt research purposes,the selection of proper and relevant macroeconomic variales are different.Dritsaki(2005)thinks that selecting macroeconomic variables should focus on those objects which reflect both economic and financial situation of one country. Thus,variables like GDP,CPI , Money Suppley, Exchange Rate,Interest Rate are applyed in this essay, for there are more likely valuable in tracing the relationship betwwen macroeconomic variables and stock market prices based on the special situation in china. On the long run,the fluctation of stock market prices and the changement of GDP shows a positive relationship,except the year of 2007.As we are known,GDP is a kind of mixed index ,which reflects the strength of a countrys overall macro-economic indicators. When there is a decline in the economic downturn, the majority of the public companies are more likely to reduce their investment and costs ,hence, the stock markets supply will move slowly;at the same time,due to economic downturn and lower expection and future income, investors, thereby reducing capital expenditure and investment,.Consequentaly,stock prices is bound to fall down. Conversely, when a countryà ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¢ GDP grews rapidly, the herald of economic prospects, expectations about the future improvement of business confidence in future development, are keen to enlarge the scale of additional investment and the demand for capital expansion, thus stimulate the stock market and increase its whole value. Consumer Price Index Total Market Capitalization Year 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TMC 1048 3531 3691 3474 9842 17529 19506 26471 48091 43522 38328 42457.72 37055.57 32430.28 89403 327141 121366 CPI 106.4 114.7 124.1 117.1 108.3 102.8 99.2 98.6 100.4 100.7 99.2 101.2 103.9 101.8 101.5 104.8 105.9 Note: TMC=Total Market Capitalization(100 Million Yuan) CPI= Concumer Price Index(assumption the last year is 100) As can be shown from the table,the CPI fluctuated in a narrow level,while the TMC saw an increase trend on the whole.It is widely realize that the measurement of Inflation Rate is based on the CPI.In theory, Inflation Rate not only directly affect peoples current decision-making, but also induce their inflation expectations. In times of inflation , currency depreciation inspired by inflation expectations always prompt the individuals to exchange the currency with commodity for the purpose of hedge, one of the hedge tools is stock, thus expanding the demand for shares; on the other hand,when inflation has grown to a level , the Government often carry out a tight fiscal and monetary policies to inhibit its development ,then, the interest rates is in rise. At that moment, one of the best options of public company to raise funds is to issue stock ,which allowing a corresponding increase in the supply of the stock market. At this point, if the stock market growth in demand is greater than supply growth, the stock price and inflation showed a positive relationship, or if the stock market growth in demand is less than supply growth, the stock price and inflation shows negative correlation. From the bar chart,though the money supply shows a steady increasing tread, the TMS seems not always keep pace with it ,this might due to the special situation in china.In theory,Money supply on stock market prices can be achieved through three kinds of effects: (1) Expected effects. When the central bank plan to implement expansionary monetary policy ,it can influence the market participants expect the currency market for the future, thus changing the stock of money supply and affect the price and size of the stock market; (2) the portfolio effect. When the central banks carry a easing monetary policy, currency held by the people increased, while the marginal utility of money (investment income) is decreasing in the other conditions remain unchanged, people held money would exceed the needs of daily transactions ,This would,of course, result in some money flood into the stock market, and the stock market prices is in rise undoubtly; (3) the growth effect of the intrinsic value of th e stock. When money supply increases, interest rates will fall,and investment will increase, thereby stimulating the stock market prices. Generally speaking, these three kinds of effects are positive, that is, money supply increase, the stock prices. Therefore, the money supply on stock prices is positive. Exchange Rate Total Market Capitalization Year 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TMC 1048 3531 3691 3474 9842 17529 19506 26471 48091 43522 38328 42457.72 37055.57 32430.28 89403 327141 121366 ER 551.46 576.20 861.87 835.10 831.42 828.98 827.91 827.83 827.84 827.70 827.70 827.70 827.68 819.17 797.18 760.40 694.51 Note:TMC=Total Market Capitalization(100 Million Yuan) ER= Exchange Rate (Base on 100 Dollars) Exchange rate, is a currency of another countrys currency exchange rate. As an important economic lever, the exchange rate changes on the interaction between a countrys stock market is reflected in many ways, including: import and export, prices and investment. Exchange rate directly affect the international flow of capital. A countrys exchange rate, means that the currency depreciation will boost exports and depress imports, thus promote one countryà ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¢s cash flow, enhance public companys expected returns,Then to some extent,promote the stock prices.However, as can be seen from the data,the relationship between Exchange Rate and stock market prices seems not significant as expected. From the perspective of investor,one of the most sensive factors that effect the stock prices is the movement of bank interest rate,which have a direct impact on the thrend of stock prices. According to classical economic theory, the interest rate is the price of money ,and the opportunity cost of holding money, which depends on the capital markets supply and demand. The supply of funds from savings, while the demand comes from investerment.Both investment and savings have profound impact on interest rates. Interest rates can reduce the cost of holding money, promote the transformation of savings to investment, thereby increasing the circulation of cash flow and corporate discount rates,leading to stock market prices rise. So interest rates increase, stock market lower; on the other hand, interest rates drop, the stock market higher. The analysis carried out in this paper indicates that the relationship between each macroeconomic variables and stock market prices are difference in china. From the above-mentioned datas and analysis,macroeconomic variables are relevant indicators of the movements of stock market prices, to be more specific ,CPI,Interest rate, Exchange rate show a negative correlation with Stock Market Price,while GDP and Money Supply present a positive relationship with Stock Market Price on the long run.

Anthropology: Examining the Physical and Cultural Characteristics of Hu

Anthropology: Examining the Physical and Cultural Characteristics of Humankind This course has provided interesting field studies of cultures that are drastically different than what I would consider â€Å"everyday life.† Anthropology examines not only who we are as a people, but also, importantly, who we were as a people. The studies of past cultures is a good place to start to answer questions about societies and cultures today, and to bridge together the gap between the past and present, and maybe even predict where we are headed in the future. Anthropology spans millions of generations, examining the physical and cultural characteristics of humankind. Often the artifacts recovered from a past civilization can tell us a great deal about how those people lived, their level of technology, their patterns of subsistance, and so on. Anthropology uses methods and tools from multiple scientific disciplines, such as the scientific method which allows the testing of falsifiable hypotheses. This approach seems to be a strong basis for many of the different areas of anthropology, namely archeology, ethnology, and linguistics. I had thought that male dominance and superiority (â€Å"man the hunter† model) was a highly conserved cultural characteristic in past societies, and even in many â€Å"less developed† areas of the world today. I was surprised by the case studies of the !Kung San (traditional foraging society, not sedentary), in which females were just as important as males in...

Amadou Diallo Essay

Social cognition is the study of how people form attribution or judgments about themselves and the social world from the social information they received from their environment (Chapter Review, 2010). However, it was discovered often marked by apparent errors and biases. People make quick judgment based on their past experiences, hence at times leading to tragic endings. The Amadou Diallo case study was an example of the tragic error which was made by four New York City Police officers. The police shooting of an unarmed man was an act of automatic inferences which happens when people use mental shortcuts to simplify the amount of information they receive from the environment. Automatic thinking is known as the thinking that is unconscious, unintentional, involuntary and effortless (Taylor, Peplau, & Sears, 2006). While, schemas are mental structure people use to arrange their information regarding the social world around themes or subjects: schemas affect what information we notice, think about, and remember (Chapter Review, 2010). During the incident February 4, 1999, Carroll had made a low-effort automatic thinking with schemas when Diallo reached into his jacket to get his wallet by assuming that Diallo was reaching for a gun in his pocket, and shouted â€Å"Gun! † to alert his colleagues. Officer Carroll’s action was due to his natural instinct or response as most criminal would reach into their pocket for gun during the detection of police officers. He had use schemas to form an expectation of the event in which made him to expect a gun pulling out of Diallo’s jacket rather than his wallet. As he attends to his schema-consistent knowledge: criminals would pull out guns from their jacket when they spotted police officers; his schemas filtered out any inconsistent information: Diallo reached in his jacket to get his wallet; had caused the NYPD officers to fire at Diallo. Besides that, there are also a few theories or concept under automatic thinking with schemas that had shown relevance to the Amadou Diallo case study, such as, accessibility. Accessibility is the ease with which schemas can be brought to one’s mind (Taylor, Peplau, & Sears, 2006). The four police officers had practiced accessibility when they saw Diallo ran up the outside steps toward his apartment house doorway at their approach, ignoring their orders to stop and â€Å"show his hands†. When they saw Diallo ran after they claimed to have identified themselves as NYPD officers, they might assume that Diallo was the serial rapist they were searching for, as logically a serial rapist or a criminal would ran when approached by police officers to avoid getting caught. The ease of the thought that criminals would run when they spotted police officers, had made the four police officers to identified Diallo as a criminal, although that was not the truth in Diallo’s case. As a result, a firestorm had unfortunately occurred. Furthermore, the four police officers had practice priming in this case study. Priming is the process which related to recent experience that made schemas or concept to come to one’s mind more readily (Taylor, Peplau, & Sears, 2006). For example, when Officer MeMellon fell down the steps, appearing to be spot, the other three officers might assume that Diallow had fire a gunshot towards Officer McMellon hence causing him to fell down those steps because they had linked it to their recent experiences of gunshot and thought that Officer McMellon had been spot and that Diallo had shot him with his gun. As one would logically fall back when shot. Perseverance effect was also shown in this case study. Perseverance effect is known as the tendency for people’s beliefs about themselves and their world to persist even when those beliefs are discredited (Taylor, Peplau, & Sears, 2006). When the four NYDP officers thought Diallo matched the description of a (since-captured) serial rapist, it might be due to the fact that Amadou Diallo was an immigrant to the United States and the four police officers could have the belief that immigrants are the major causal crime increment in the Unites States. Hence resulting the police officers to think the worse out of Diallo when he ran and even though he was reaching into his jacket to get his wallet, the police officers had persisted that the square object had been of a firearm although in logical terms both wallet and gun do not share the same shape and size. On the other hand,people also tend to use mental strategies and shortcuts to organize and make sense of their social world, especially when they are lack of full processing time, lack of solid information to use for decision making, information overload, or when the issues are not important to them (Taylor, Peplau, & Sears, 2006). Mental strategies and shortcuts help people to make decisions easier and allow them to get on with their lives and not turn every decision into a major hurdle. Four NYDP officers had practise judgmental heuristics when they made judgments about Diallo. Police officers thought Diallo had matched the description of a (since-captured) serial rapist. This might be because that Diallo was a dark skin immigrant which had logically matched the description of the serial rapist leading officers to made a quick decision so that they do not need analyse in detailed and make a major hold-up over the matter. Furthermore, the four police officers also did performed availability heuristic in this case. Availability heuristic is a mental rule of thumb whereby people base a judgment on the ease with which they can bring something to their mind (Taylor, Peplau, & Sears, 2006). During the incident, Diallo had been mistaken that he was reaching into his jacket to get his firearm whereas he was actually reaching to get his wallet. Officer Carroll had shouted â€Å"Gun! † to his colleagues. His judgment might be due to his ease with which he can bring to his mind, which in this case, was automatically thinking that Diallo’s wallet was a gun, hence warned his colleagues about the matter. Attitude heuristic is the determination of what is â€Å"true† based upon an individual’s feelings towards or for a matter (Taylor, Peplau, & Sears, 2006). The four police officers also had carried out attitude heuristic towards Amadou Diallo. For example, these police officers might dislike Diallo because he was an immigrant or ‘black’ person therefore assuming that Diallo’s intention, plan, or doings would also be bad too. This caused Diallo to be misinterpreted to be a criminal trying to escape from police detention rather than his true intention, which was believed to initially intend to show the NYPD officers his identification card in his wallet before he wrongly shot. Besides theories and concept of automatic thinking with schemas, the Amadou Diallo case had also displayed a few relevant theories of social perception. During the incident, the four police officers had displayed the attribution theory. Attribution theory is a description of the way which people explain the causes of their own and other people’s behavior (Taylor, Peplau, & Sears, 2006). It is because that Diallo had run up the outside steps of his apartment after they claimed to identified themselves as NYPD officers, and that he had reached into his jacket, the police officers have made a cause and effect explanation towards Diallo’s behavior hence assuming that he was a criminal or the serial rapist they were searching for, therefore Diallo had run up in the attempt to escape and when he reached into his jacket for his wallet, they thought that he was reaching for his gun to defend himself. Due to this theory, it made sense of he reason four police officers have assumed that Diallo was a criminal and they had to fire back Diallo. All this might be due to the attachment of meaning they decode from Diallo’s nonverbal behavior. In addition, the fundamental attribution error was also shown in the incident when the four police officers have focus on Diallo’s action to run and reached into his jacket, rather than the situation causes of his action, which was intending to reached into his jacket to get his wallet to show the police officers that he was innocent when he was approached by the police officers and asked to â€Å"show his hands†. Fundamental attribution error is known as the tendency to overestimate the extent to which a person’s behavior is due to internal, dispositional factors and to underestimate the role of situational factors, one reason people make fundamental attribution error is because the observer only put their attention on the actor, while ignoring the situational causes of the actor’s behavior (Taylor, Peplau, & Sears, 2006). Furthermore, Diallo had also displayed the spotlight effect in this case study. The spotlight effect is the tendency to overestimate the extent to which our actions and appearance are salient or clear to others (Taylor, Peplau, & Sears, 2006). When Diallo had reached into his jacket to get his wallet, he might had assumed that the NYPD officers know or understand what he was doing, which in his case, was the probability to take out his wallet and show them he was not the criminal or man they were searching for. However, the four police officers were not aware of his action hence assumed that he has a gun, hence fired at Diallo. Moreover, police officers had also displayed the aggression objects as cues concept during the shooting event. Aggression objects as cue is an aggressive stimulus that act as an object that is associated with aggressive response, and whose mere presence can increase the probability of aggression (Taylor, Peplau, & Sears, 2006). The aggressive stimulus in this Diallo case is the guns that the police officers possessed. When the police officers had encountered a threatening or violent stimulus, they were more likely to â€Å"shoot† regardless of what stimulus actually appeared (Baumann & Desteno, 2010). Due to the possession of firearms, the four police officers had the higher possibilities to response aggressively towards Diallo, hence the gun act as the object that associated with their aggressive response. Without the firearms that the four police officers possessed, the act of aggression towards Diallo would decrease therefore the firestorm would not have happened. According to Correll et al. (2002), it was found that participants’ performance shown difference regarding race of the targeted person. When a decision making process was time limited, participants had made more errors shooting unarmed African American targets than unarmed White targets. Whereas, participants had made more errors not shooting armed White targets than armed African American targets. In other words, participants were more likely made errors evaluating African American targets as threatening compared to White targets. This means that because Diallo was a ‘black’ immigrant, it increases his rate of being shot. This is an act of stereotype as because Diallo was a ‘black’ immigrant, they assumed that he might be a criminal, hence the police officers thereby increasing the likelihoods for certain interpretations and ensuing actions during the crucial moment, resulting them to mistaken Diallo’s wallet as a gun, hence shot him. In another words, it is like the Arabs possess guns, resulting in more frequent mistaken â€Å"shootings† of Arab men within the context of the shooter bias paradigm (Unkelbach, Forgas, & Denson, 2008). There are also group prejudices that had been displayed in the Amadou Diallo case study. The four police officers had shown prejudice against Diallo because he was a dark-skin immigrant, hence they have ordered him to stop and â€Å"show his hands† without confirming whether he was the serial rapist they were searching for. Seeing the suspect holding a small square object, Officer Carroll yelled â€Å"Gun! † to alert his colleagues, believing thatDiallo had aimed a gun at them at close range, the officers opened fire on Diallo. Diallo was a West African immigrant with no criminal record (Cooper, 1999). It was clearly shown the act of prejudice towards Diallo, whom was misunderstood or misinterpreted just because of his race. Furthermore, discrimination was shown in the Amadou Diallo case when the four NYPD officers had opened fire to shoot Diallo without proper investigation on his identity and the square object that he was holding during the incident. The action carried out by the four police officers was unjustified and harmful towards Diallo because he was a West American immigrant in the United States. Finally, illusory correlation was also shown in the Amadou Diallo case. An illusory correlation is the tendency to see relationships, or correlations, between events that are actually unrelated (Taylor, Peplau, & Sears, 2006). When Diallo ran up the outside steps of his apartment and pulled out his wallet, the police officers had correlated his action to a criminal’s doing hence leading them to assume that he was a criminal ready to open fire at them in short range. These two events are distinctive and hardly correlated. Because Diallo was a West African immigrant, therefore the police officers correlated the two events together, causing Diallo his innocent life.

Developmental Theories of the Movie Precious Essays

Developmental Theories in The Notebook Brianna Gallegos University of New Mexico N224 Developmental Theories in The Notebook The Notebook demonstrates the growth and development theories including biosocial, psychosocial, and cognitive. The Notebook is a movie about a young couple who falls in love. The woman, Allie, is from a wealthy family who is discouraged when she has fallen in love with a young man, Noah, who only makes .40 cents an hour (Cassavetes, 2004). The story is told through a â€Å"notebook† that Noah is reading to Allie, whom has Alzheimer’s disease. Allie has no clue that Noah is her husband due to her disease. Noah has hope that Allie will eventually recognize the story he is telling her and realize it is her husband†¦show more content†¦According to Erikson, this is when the elderly start to be proud of their accomplishments, but are also faced with disparity of the goals they never reached (Berger, 2011). Noah is proud to be telling Allie about their past and wants her to remember it because he is taking so much pride in it. Even though Noah wants Allie to remembe r their past, he is dealing with the disparity that his wife may not ever remember him. An example from the movie is when Allie remembers who Noah is for just a few moments, and he is so glad and has thought she is back forever, but Allie immediately goes back into not knowing who Noah is (Cassavetes, 2004). Noah is immediately sad and despised that his wife will never be the same. The brain slowly starts to diminish in the elderly. According the Maslow, this stage in life is a life review (Berger, 2011). Allie and Noah’s life is in a review throughout the entire movie. Allie is trying to remember what her life was like. Unfortunately, Allie comprehends the story Noah is telling her, but doesn’t realize it is herself. She states in the movie, â€Å"this is a great story, the girl seems so amazing† (Cassavetes, 2004). 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